AI infrastructure rotation radar

Hyperscaler capex and demand signals keep datacentre stance risk-on

Posture: stay_exposed

Why now

• Five hyperscalers show positive forward signals: META raised capex guidance, AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/ORCL reported strengthening demand. [E18978 E18976 E18977 E18979 E16851]
• AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT capex actuals rose sharply YoY alongside double-digit revenue growth, confirming spend momentum. [X15569C20260331 X4125C20260331 X4124C20260331]
• dc-demand-overhang claim remains active with positive balance and no drift, reinforced by ORCL RPO commentary. [C1 E18980]

Counterevidence

• ORCL flags competitive AI accelerator and memory supply constraints raising input cost risk. [E16853]
• ORCL also cites constrained global power availability for datacentre energy demand. [E16852]
• ORCL capex actual is stale from 2025-08-31, limiting visibility into current spend pace. [G1]
• llama.cpp serving-stack momentum remains high at 92.1 level even as it eases. [S176_2026-07-15]

Rotation triggers

• Prepare rotation requires at least 2 negative hyperscalers, versus zero currently. [K1]
• Prepare rotation also triggers if a claim goes positive all-time with drift; none drifting now. [K1 C1 C2 C3]
• Prepare rotation could trigger on weakening supply plus a positive efficiency delta; current delta is -2.98. [K1]
• Stay_exposed requires at least 3 positive hyperscalers and no drift, currently met with 5 and zero drift. [K1]

Data gaps

• ORCL latest discrete quarterly capex actual is stale (2025-08-31). [G1]
• TSM has no US-GAAP quarterly capex or revenue disclosure. [G2]
• ASML has no US-GAAP quarterly capex or revenue disclosure. [G3]
• MU latest discrete quarterly capex actual is stale (2025-11-27). [G4]

Claim updates

• dc-demand-overhang: Balance 4.80, trailing-30d 1.30, active with no drift, reinforced by ORCL RPO/demand commentary. [C1 E18980]
• dc-capex-rising: Balance 3.70, trailing-30d 0.00, active with no drift. [C2]
• dc-power-bottleneck: Balance 0.50, trailing-30d 0.50, active with no drift. [C3]

Calculation and gate notes

• As of 2026-07-15; posture is deterministic, not model-scored. [K1]
• 5 hyperscalers raised/new capex or reported strengthening demand [K1]
• no datacentre claim is in drift [K1]

Sources

• [E18978] META dccapexguidance 2026-04-29: META capex guidance raised: We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $125-145 billion, increased from our prior range of $115-135 billion. — source
• [E18976] AMZN dcdemandsignal 2026-04-29: AMZN demand strengthening: AWS is growing 28% (our fastest growth in 15 quarters) on a very large base — source
• [E18977] GOOGL dcdemandsignal 2026-04-29: GOOGL demand strengthening: Google Cloud saw a meaningful acceleration in growth as revenues increased 63% to $20.0 billion, led by an increase in Google Cloud Platform (GCP) across enterprise AI Solutions and enterprise AI Infrastructure — source
• [E18979] MSFT dcdemandsignal 2026-04-29: MSFT demand strengthening: growing demand for the Microsoft Cloud — source
• [E16851] ORCL dcdemandsignal 2026-06-22: ORCL demand strengthening: customer demand for our applications and infrastructure technologies delivered through our Oracle Cloud deployment models has increased — source
• [X15569C20260331] AMZN quarterly capex actual $44,203,000,000 for period ended 2026-03-31; QoQ not comparable, YoY +76.7% — source
• [X4125C20260331] GOOGL quarterly capex actual $35,674,000,000 for period ended 2026-03-31; QoQ not comparable, YoY +107.4% — source
• [X4124C20260331] MSFT quarterly capex actual $30,876,000,000 for period ended 2026-03-31; QoQ +3.4%, YoY +84.4% — source
• [C1] Claim dc-demand-overhang: balance 4.80, trailing-30d 1.30, drift=false, status=active
• [E18980] dc-demand-overhang confirms weight 0.70: ORCL demand strengthening: The large increases in Oracle’s RPO and revenue are driven by the growing demand for cloud infrastructure for AI training and inferencing. — source
• [E16853] ORCL dcsupplyconstraint 2026-06-22: ORCL supply constraint: industry supply capacity for AI accelerators, including graphics processing units, as well as memory devices, is competitive, and we at times have to accept less favorable terms with suppliers to minimize supply constraints. — source
• [E16852] dcpowerconstraint 2026-06-22: ORCL power constraint: We have faced, and may continue to face, challenges with securing reliable and cost-effective power sources for our data center energy demands, which are constrained globally — source
• [G1] ORCL: latest discrete quarterly capex actual is stale (2025-08-31)
• [S176_2026-07-15] ggml-org/llama.cpp serving-stack momentum 92.1 on 2026-07-15; change -2.8 points — source
• [K1] Deterministic posture stay_exposed: positive hyperscalers=5 (raised/new capex=1, strengthening demand=4), negative hyperscalers=0, drifting claims=0, supply weakening=false, efficiency delta=-2.98. Prepare requires at least 2 negative hyperscalers, or positive all-time claims with drift, or weakening supply plus a positive efficiency delta. Stay requires at least 3 positive hyperscalers and no drift. A positive efficiency delta means rising counterpressure; a negative delta means counterpressure is easing.
• [C2] Claim dc-capex-rising: balance 3.70, trailing-30d 0.00, drift=false, status=active
• [C3] Claim dc-power-bottleneck: balance 0.50, trailing-30d 0.50, drift=false, status=active
• [G2] TSM: no US-GAAP quarterly capex or revenue (foreign/IFRS filers remain explicit)
• [G3] ASML: no US-GAAP quarterly capex or revenue (foreign/IFRS filers remain explicit)
• [G4] MU: latest discrete quarterly capex actual is stale (2025-11-27)